Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes of the Pandemic and How To Adapt

No surprise, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted pretty much all aspects of how we live. As the pandemic starts to recede (in the US anyway) the question is “which changes will stay with us in 2021 and beyond”? The evidence indicates that many of these changes were already in process before COVID hit and what the pandemic did was accelerate their adoption. However, in no way does this lessen the impact that they will have on society, business and our lifestyles going forward.

The lockdowns and isolation caused many of us to reflect on how we live our lives. YOLO (You Only Live Once) became one of the key drivers for the multitude of the changes that have already taken hold. Many people came to realize that you only get to do this once and decided to make lifestyle changes to insure that they get the most of their lives. This has been supported by the rise of remote/work-from-home options and record high levels of savings.

In a short blog like this I won’t be able to go into detail about each of the changes we’re experiencing, but I will share some initial insights on each. A deeper dive with the potential impact each will have on businesses and lifestyles will be provided in future posts.

Migration Away From Major Cities and the Coasts

The past year has seen a significant number of people move away from major cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Meanwhile, new employment hubs like Austin, Dallas, Phoenix, Columbus and Nashville have experienced considerable population growth.We’re also seeing increased movement out of many major cities into nearby suburban and exurban areas. This trend began in 2014 but has greatly accelerated in the past year.

The financial capacity for this disruption has been driven in part by the skyrocketing levels of U.S. personal savings, which have grown to record levels during the pandemic. This has helped to generate a newfound ability for many people to purchase a home who previously couldn’t afford to. Another major factor is that these people are moving from the ultra expensive markets in the Northeast and the West Coast to more affordable locations in the South, West, and Midwest.

Younger people, primarily in the 25 to 34 age range, are leading this trend. Another key driver has been the rapid movement of immigrants to smaller cities such as Fayetteville, AK, Knoxville, TN,; Cedar Rapids, IA, Springfield, MO., and Fargo, ND. Most of these markets are areas with traditionally low concentrations of foreign-born populations. Racial minorities, too, are moving to Sunbelt boom towns, the South, and to smaller cities.

We know from past experience to never count out New York City, Chicago, etc. But for these cities to come all the way back, they will need to place a greater emphasis on creating an environment that is more livable, healthier, safer and friendlier to local businesses. This will require infrastructure spending and improvements in mass transit to allow for faster and easier commutes to their suburbs.

Employment

Many workers, now emboldened by fat bank accounts, have an increased appetite for job-related risk. While some are just changing jobs, others are starting their own business or stepping off the career treadmill altogether. A recent Microsoft survey found that more than 40 percent of workers globally are considering leaving their jobs this year.

This is causing a substantial power shift, where talented workers are now able to have more influence on where and how they work. Employees today have an unprecedented ability to negotiate these work/life balance issues with employers. Dissatisfied workers have more options than ever before.This will only make the talent crunch even tougher on companies.

To get ahead of this exodus, employers are trying to boost morale, prevent burnout, and offer new and innovative benefits. Many are offering work-from-home or hybrid options, extra time off, and even all expense paid vacations. However, while raises and time off may persuade some employees to stay put, for others the only solution will be radical change. Organizational stability will continue to be one of the biggest challenges for many companies going forward..

Shopping

This is another area where we’re seeing an acceleration of trends that have been under way for quite some time. During the pandemic, online shopping and BOPIS (Buy online, pick up in store) grew at a blistering pace. Conversely, traffic in regional shopping malls declined to record low levels. U.S. malls saw their real estate value plunge an average of 60%. Recent appraisals of 118 retail mall properties show a loss of a collective $4 billion in value compared to what they were appraised for in 2019. According to Compass Point Research & Trading only 50% of the country's 1,100 indoor malls have a good chance of staying open for the long haul.

The news on department stores is just as grim. These mainstays of convenience and indulgence had been hurting long before the pandemic turbocharged online shopping and drove a number of big-name retailers into bankruptcy. Close to 200 department store units have disappeared in the past year, and according to commercial real estate firm Green Street, 800 more, or almost half the country’s remaining mall-based locations, will shutter by the end of 2025.

Some malls have a better chance for survival than others. Those in prime locations tend to have fewer vacancies and could thrive in the coming years. They also feature stores that offer a robust omni-channel experience. However, those malls that were seeing decreasing foot traffic prior to the pandemic could likely be on their way out in the next several years. Some locations will be repurposed for residential purposes. Others could be converted to warehouses and distribution centers.

The past 16 months of living in the shadow of the pandemic has been a challenge and learning process for all of us. It has served as an accelerant to many changes that had started years earlier. While the overall impact of COVID has been horrific, many of the changes will end up to be positive. Hopefully we come out the other end stronger and more united as a country. Those who adapt and transform quickly to meet the changes will be better positioned to survive and thrive.

Coming in Part Two … long term changes in Travel, Entertainment, and Cities driven by the pandemic

The Case For Consultants In The Post-Covid Comeback

Spring has sprung, the weather is suddenly summer-like, three million people are being vaccinated daily and optimism abounds. Not surprisingly, business activity is bouncing back. The Institute for Supply Management just announced that US service providers delivered the fastest March growth ever. This surge has left many companies scrambling to ramp up capacity in order to take advantage of this burgeoning business trend.

The speed and intensity of this post-Covid comeback has caught many companies shorthanded because of all the lay-offs, furloughs and job shifting that had to be done in order to survive the impact of the pandemic. In addition, with the recovery accelerating, many overworked employees that had been nervous about switching jobs will likely be more comfortable making the decision to get ahead by going to another company.

Businesses are now faced with two options for filling this urgent resource gap. They can aggressively work to recruit, hire and train new full time staff. Or, they can quickly research and hire consultants with the expertise and bandwidth needed to take full advantage of this significant business opportunity.

If you choose the consultant route you have the option of working with one of the behemoths (McKinsey, Bain, etc.) or a smaller firm that specializes in your specific category and/or business needs. In general, the smaller firms provide a more intimate, collaborative approach that uses boots-on-the-ground senior experts. The big firms usually staff client accounts with green MBA graduates, while more senior partners focus on client management and finding new projects.

For those clients that prefer being involved in the whole process, a boutique firm will likely be a better fit. In this scenario, the partners would actively work alongside your senior executives to deliver customized solutions. In addition, your staff will benefit from having direct contact with experienced business professionals who will provide the expertise and guidance required to deliver the requested work. Not to mention, smaller consultancies are typically more agile and less expensive than the larger firms.

The Benefits of Hiring a Consultant Over Full Time Staff

1) Speed - Finding and attracting top talent is always a difficult and time consuming process. Consultants come pre-loaded with experience and are ready to hit the ground running, no training is needed. This will significantly improve your speed to market.

2) Value - “You get what you pay for.” Deliverables and terms are negotiated with the consultant and documented in a concise Scope of Work (SOW) agreement. You decide how much a task is worth and only spend that amount. In the case of full-time employees, they will receive their paycheck on a regular basis no matter what. According to a recent Inc. Magazine study, it was found that the “average employee is only productive for 2 hours and 53 minutes per day.”

3) Flexibility/Lower Risk - Since consultants are contractors and not employees you have much more control over conditions and costs. The terms of engagement can be tailored to your specific business needs. In addition, since consultants aren’t considered employees, your company does not bear full responsibility for their actions.

The pandemic is starting to wane, creating room for the economy to grow again. Speed to market is going to be critical for companies that want to take full advantage of this opportunity. However, Covid driven lay-offs and furloughs have left many businesses without the internal resources needed to quickly develop and execute successful strategies. Hiring a boutique consulting group to play this role will set your company up for short and mid term success.

Four Key Actions To Capture the Vaccinated Traveling Consumer

I’m just back from my first trip since the pandemic started. What I experienced was not what I expected. Both flights were full, the Phoenix airport was crazy busy, and I’m guessing that a majority of travelers were not vaccinated. I booked my trip immediately after getting my first jab, scheduling it for when CDC guidelines said I would have full vaccine protection. Like almost everything else impacted by COVID, my journey, and I’m sure those of many other consumers booking travel again, has changed in many ways.

Coming back from the global pandemic is arguably the biggest challenge the travel industry has ever faced. But the good news is that there is huge pent-up demand, with travelers wanting to get back to vacationing and exploring as soon as it’s safe for them to do so. It’s critical that travel providers understand what consumer expectations are going forward so they can be ready to deliver a safe, exciting, and positive experience.

Implement and Over Communicate Safety Measures

Safety will continue to be a major concern among consumers as they’re putting together their vacation plans. More than two-thirds of all people are apprehensive about “life returning to normal” (healthinsurance.com/RMG Research). Making travelers feel safe and comfortable will be one of the keys to driving bookings. Providing clear and detailed safety information will be an important element of this. Plan on utilizing email and text messages to deliver relevant, timely insights that will help to alleviate any concerns that consumers might have before making their final decisions.

Historical Booking Windows Have Shifted

Relying on historical booking behavior will likely not be very helpful when forecasting demand for the balance of 2021. In many cases, prospective travelers are starting their trip research sooner, but they’re holding off on making final commitments until much closer to the actual departure date. Previously spontaneous travelers aren’t booking as much travel as they once did, and travelers over age 55 are also not making final decisions much in advance of when they travel. These forecasting challenges are further exacerbated because the vast majority of travelers do not expect to keep current reservations as they are. All of this means that booking windows will continue to be shorter, which will require travel providers to be more flexible with consumers and they will have to adapt to all these changes when predicting future demand.

Travelers Want Flexibility and Value

While the personal savings rate in the U.S. has nearly doubled to over $2.9 trillion, this will not translate to consumers spending this money like proverbial “drunken sailors”. Just like our family members who grew up in the Great Depression and exited that experience with lifelong financial cautiousness, post pandemic consumers are likely to also be value conscious. EuroMonitor calls these people “Thoughtful Thrifters” as they budget cautiously and purchase value-added and affordable products and services. In addition, losing money is a major concern for potential travelers. Flexibility is key, with over 83% of travelers saying that they want clear and easy-to-find information about refund, cancellation and rebooking policies.

Focus First on Road Warriors and Low Key Experiences

As vaccination rates rise and restrictions are lifted, frequent travelers, the road warriors who took three or more trips in 2019, will be among the first to venture out. While travelers are willing to consider a diversity of destinations, there will be some hesitance to go abroad. Less crowded, smaller towns and rural destinations will at first be the top choices, with more urban and cosmopolitan getaways gaining in popularity soon thereafter.

Travel providers that focus on safety, flexibility, and value will experience faster growth and increased profitability more quickly than those who stick to the more traditional, pre-pandemic business model. Now is the time to highlight the “hospitality” side of the hospitality business.

The Early Birds Fly First

Tomorrow I’ll be getting my second jab of Moderna and then two weeks later the vaccine will be in full force against COVID 19. It’s an understatement to say that it is a very freeing and optimistic feeling to be protected against the virus. And what was the first thing I did after getting my first dose? If you guessed “book a flight” you’d be correct. I’ll be flying down to Tucson to visit my son (also fully vaccinated) and enjoy a bit of warm weather.

I’m not alone in my desire to travel. Pretty much every person I know is planning a trip once they are vaccinated. Over 50% of the age 65+ population in the US has now received at least one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and every day another 1.7 - 2.2 million people are added to the list. This age 65+ group of vaccinated “early birds” represent a giant opportunity to jumpstart the long dormant travel industry.

There is an unprecedented level of pent up demand for travel. People are chafing at the bit to go somewhere and a significant portion of the population, who have saved a considerable amount of money during the pandemic, can’t wait to spend at least some of it to get away as soon as possible. While low cost and local travel will greatly benefit, I’d be willing to bet that expensive luxury vacations will also be in high demand.

In a January survey by the travel agency network Virtuoso, they found that 95% of respondents over the age of 77 said that they wouldn't travel until they are vaccinated. But they also stated that once they were protected, that they’d be ready to pack their bags and get on the road. And the latest data on hotel bookings across the country supports this premise, as the number of reservations being made using AARP promotional rates have increased by more than 50% in the last few weeks.

To capture your share of this early surge in travel bookings you need to act quickly. A large portion of your media, marketing, and messaging should be focused on this 65+ age group of more affluent travelers. In addition to utilizing standard common sense tactics, I recommend a few other actions that will help to maximize your performance:

• Leverage your existing databases to specifically target the 65+ crowd and include messaging that makes the connection between being vaccinated and booking travel

• Add promotional benefits for the 65+ age group to your travel packages. As AARP has repeatedly proven over the years, the addition of a targeted discount or promotional offer is key to closing the sale. Seniors love a deal and tend to shop around to find the best one available. Hence the term “early birds” from the infamous “early bird dinner specials.”

• Focus on the safety measures you have in place. Near term, some vaccinated seniors will need this reassurance before making the commitment to travel. Highlight the practices that you have put in place that will provide a level of comfort to your customers. People will understand that mask wearing, social distancing, and other CDC protocols still need to be followed to keep everybody safe

To help to facilitate verification that travelers have been vaccinated, Microsoft and Salesforce have teamed up to form the Vaccination Credential Initiative (VCI). This platform provides people with digital access to their vaccination records so they can “demonstrate their health status.” In addition, United Airlines recently launched a Travel-Ready Center in the United app that allows travelers to store their vaccination records and test results.

Don’t miss out on this opportunity. You need to quickly develop and implement a plan to capture your fair share of these early bird travelers. As the old saying goes, “the early bird gets the worm.”

Outdoor Enthusiasts Lead The Way As Travel Comes Back

Over the past year of pandemic living, the only somewhat normal activities I’ve been able to take advantage of happened in the great outdoors. This included a daily 3-4 mile hike and an 8 mile bike ride along the shore of Lake Michigan. Then, from May through October, weather permitting, getting out on the lake fishing for salmon. Not surprisingly, I wasn't the only one doing this, as participation in outdoor activities skyrocketed in 2020. One of the silver linings of the COVID lockdowns is that Americans rediscovered their love of the great outdoors. And all signs point to this trend continuing to grow in 2021.

““The 2.2 percent jump in total participation over the past year is the largest annual increase we’ve seen since we began tracking the numbers, and it translates to many millions of additional participants who discovered the outdoors in 2020,” stated Outdoor Industry Association (OIA) Executive Director Lise Aangeenbrug. Whether hiking, camping, fishing, golfing, snow sports, or water sports, Americans sought out pandemic-appropriate recreational activities in record numbers. Hiking participation increased by 8.1 million, camping by 7.9 million, and freshwater fishing by 3.4 million.

The size and scale of the outdoor economy always seems to surprise people. Consumer spending on outdoor recreation is in excess of $887 billion annually (excluding the $84+ billion spent on golf). Outdoor gear accounts for $184.5 billion of the total and a whopping $702.3 billion is spent on travel related activities. More than 7.6 million jobs are connected to the outdoor economy. What all this says to me is that as people start to travel again, focusing on attracting outdoor enthusiasts will likely generate early and strong returns.

Most destinations can take advantage of this opportunity. Whether in a wilderness area or an urban environment, there are always outdoor activities available that will attract enthusiasts. For example, who would ever guess that downtown Milwaukee has arguably the best shore fishing for monster rainbow and brown trout in the world. These types of urban outdoor activities abound and they can provide the tipping point for travelers to choose your destination.

With so many new outdoor enthusiasts looking to partake in a wide variety of outdoor activities, there is a major opportunity for destinations and gear makers/marketers to work together to capture a portion of this incremental business. These partnerships can provide win-win-win situations, delivering excellent user experiences while generating new revenue streams for the destination and their partners. The end result will be:

• Consumers gain by having an enhanced outdoors experience

• Destinations generate new visitors who will likely come back again in the future

• Gear makers/marketers drive incremental sales and brand loyalty

There are four steps to building a successful Outdoor Destination Marketing program. First, you need to do an audit of your destination to create and prioritize a list of available outdoor activities. This will help you to choose which activities to focus your efforts on. Next, identify the key manufacturers and retailers that serve consumers participating in those specific outdoor activities. Then choose the best options and reach out to each to gauge their interest in partnering with you, focusing on those you feel will provide the best support. Finally, don’t forget to consider media partnerships that will help to build awareness and interest.

The Four Steps to Building a Successful Outdoor Destination Marketing Program

1. Audit your destination and prioritize the outdoor activities available

2. Match the outdoor activities with gear makers and marketers

3. Reach out, explore, negotiate, and build partnership programs

4. Add media partners to leverage ad budgets and drive awareness and interest


Now is the time to start the process of building marketing programs that target outdoor enthusiasts. Consumers are itching to travel again and since outdoor activities are safer than indoor options it makes sense that these will be the first that people will travel to. As my mom would always say, “get outside and play!”

The Arts and Travel - A Post Pandemic Win:Win Partnership

With over one million people being vaccinated each day in the United States we are starting to see an awakening in the travel business. Consumers are starting to actually plan trips that they believe they can take, as vaccine-driven optimism is rising. In addition, concerts, festivals and art museums are beginning to announce dates and re-openings. While there is massive pent-up demand for both travel and the arts, the restart will be both slow and tentative. Activity levels will jump dramatically later this year, but the travel/tourism business won’t likely get back to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.

Outside of the hospitality industry (bars and restaurants) no other categories have been harder hit by the pandemic than travel/tourism and the arts. Both are experiential activities that require participants to be physically present. Yes, I know, there’s a strong virtual/digital economy for the arts, but unfortunately this represents a small part of the income that most musicians, actors, artists, and production crews make from their work. Outside of Broadway and Las Vegas, which are entertainment destinations, musicians, stage actors, and dancers must take their shows on the road to earn a living. Travel is a necessity for the vast majority of performing artists.

The arts sector accounts for more than 4.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) and is larger than the agriculture and transportation sectors. This figure does not account for the billions of ancillary revenue spent on dinner, drinks, hotels, parking, shopping, etc. that is directly related to arts events.

Both the arts and travel will start to come back in Q3 and Q4 this year. The speed with which this happens will depend on how safe consumers feel jumping on a flight or sitting in a theatre with thousands of others. The economics of the touring business will make it tough for acts to hit the road again. Where they used to play 4,000 seaters they may need to scale back and play 2.000 seaters. Also, if everybody hits the road at once, that will create availability issues at preferred venues and force consumers to make tough decisions on how many of their favorite acts they can afford to see.

The travel and performing arts are very similar in that their inventory is entirely perishable. Every airplane seat that flies empty, hotel room that goes vacant or an unsold theatre seat is lost inventory. For this and other reasons they are obvious partners. There are a number of ways that the arts community and the travel/tourism industry can work together to develop win:win partnerships. Here are a few possibilities:

Trading travel services for sponsorship rights and/or performances and fees. The touring business is heavily dependent on travel and airlines and hotels can offset these costs by tying their brands to events that will put more butts in the seats and heads in beds.

The creation of festival events that feature in-demand performers that will drive visitors to specific properties. Think like a tour operator and build packages that include air, hotel, and tickets.

Sponsor artists and then leverage the rub-off equity that comes from the relationship to incentivize fans to favor a brand or brands.

One recent example of a partnership between arts and travel is a “new music-focused experiential hospitality category” being developed by Universal Music Group and investment holding company Dakia U-Ventures, LLC. The first of their music themed luxury hotels will be built in Atlanta, Orlando, and Biloxi, Mississippi. These properties will give fans the opportunity to have easier access to their favorite acts while providing performers with guaranteed income without having to commit to a somewhat risky tour. This model is similar to the one that has worked well for cruise lines and Las Vegas venues.

This is a time when both the arts community and travel/tourism providers need each other and there are numerous opportunities for creating mutually beneficial business relationships and projects. The demand will be strong and by partnering with artists who attract a desired target audience, travel providers can build both traffic and loyal customers.

Uncovering New Opportunities - The Case for Business Transformation

2020 has been the great accelerant to socio-economic change. This challenging, disruptive and unique year has dramatically changed how people live, work, shop and relate to each other. Businesses must move fast to catch up and be ready for the inevitable change that 2021 will bring. While a few companies may be able to thrive and survive with simple tweaks, the majority will need to implement significant business transformation in order to return to sustained growth and profitability.

Just last month (December 2020) a Deloitte survey of 3,600 executives in 96 countries found that 61% are focusing on transforming the workplace (double pre-pandemic levels). The primary focus is on building a better workplace and investing in human resources. While workplace transformation is key, now is also the time to take a hard look at what you sell (products), how you sell (sales and marketing), and your manufacturing and distribution systems.

Every major change we have seen in the past year has driven a cascading chain of both positive and negative impacts in the marketplace. A few examples:

COVID has restricted or stopped indoor public gatherings

• Outdoor activities (hiking, fishing, biking, etc.) participation/spending has exploded

• Music, movie, restaurant and gym businesses have been devastated

COVID has closed offices and now millions work-from-home (WFH)

• Traffic is greatly reduced, gasoline sales are down and we see a reduction in air pollution

• Athletic/casual apparel (sweats) has spiked while business casual has tanked

Historically high unemployment levels

• Millions of people are in a state of financial hardship and have been struggling to pay rent and put food on the table

• Those that are employed have fewer spending options due to the impact of the pandemic (e.g. travel, restaurants, entertainment) and instead are saving money or moving forward with major expenditures such as new homes, home improvement and cars

This list can get very long, but, you get the idea - 2020 has been tough for many people and businesses. However, for others it was a banner year (I’m looking at you Amazon). But one thing that is consistent to all businesses is that adapting to change is required to either stop the bleeding and/or to capitalize on new opportunities.

Like with most things in life, change creates opportunity. The marketplace is now demanding brands to reinvent themselves. We want products and services that fill the needs of living in our new reality. Innovation and change can’t simply be generated top down. It needs to be a co-creation across the company’s entire eco-system. This would include management, staff, vendors, and suppliers, who need to collaborate in support of delivering what consumers are looking for.

As we enter 2021, I’m feeling optimistic that we will eventually get back to some version of normal. Meaning that masks won’t always be required and we can once again travel and go to restaurants, concerts, movies and sporting events. However, I’m also quite certain that we’ll encounter a number of bumps along the road and that there will likely be new and unforeseen challenges that will arise.

Successfully navigating through the heavy fog of change and uncertainty, will require a strong compass, experience, and a strong dose of empathy. Those companies that embrace business transformation will be best positioned to take advantage of new opportunities and position themselves for strong and sustainable future growth.

The Travel Industry’s Journey Back to Profitability - Five Key Questions

The days of unfettered travel are not likely returning anytime soon. There continues to be a myriad of restrictions on where you can go, what you can do when you get there, and what you need to do when you get back. Not to mention the enumerable hardships encountered just getting to your destination of choice. In the new travel paradigm a two connection trip is now considered non-stop.

Consumers desperately want to travel again. There is a high level of pent up demand in the marketplace. But what will consumer expectations be when they are finally ready to travel again? And, are service providers positioned to be able to deliver against those demands? Those challenges, along with all the significant changes these companies have had to implement in order to survive, make it unlikely that pre-pandemic business strategies will be viable going forward. The low cost, self-service model that drove so much growth across the industry over the last few years will need to be replaced by approaches that meet the evolving needs of the traveling consumer, while providing travel companies with a path back to profitability.

As happened post 9/11, travel service providers will need to transform in order to thrive going forward. Future success will depend on their ability to quickly understand where the market opportunities lie and then to develop and implement new strategies that will position them to capture that business.

There are five key questions that travel companies need to answer in order to transform their businesses so they can compete successfully in the new world order. Your responses will provide the foundational data needed to help define the optimal path forward:

1) What services will consumers expect you to provide that were not previously core to your operations?

2) What types of new experiences will consumers demand and do you have the ability to provide them?

3) What types of incentives, partnerships and marketing programs will consumers respond to and how will that impact your existing programs?

4) What will you do to meet consumer expectations that your company is legitimately focused on sustainable business practices?

5 What information will consumers require to feel comfortable making the decision to travel and do you have the resources to provide it in a timely manner?

Not all of these questions will directly apply to your particular business, but some element of each is likely to be relevant. This is a complicated and evolving situation and answering these questions is just the beginning of the process. Watch out for our next post, where we’ll continue on this business transformation journey.

What Do We Do Now?

We are now in arguably the most uncertain of days in the most uncertain year of our lives. We face a global pandemic, economic crisis, and a country and government as divided as it could possibly be. I’m guessing that many of us are saying to ourselves, “How do we move forward in these chaotic times?”

One thing I’ve learned from working through major challenges in the past is that a shifting terrain will uncover new opportunities. The trick is being able to identify these openings in the marketplace and then have access to the talent and resources to quickly act on them. And it’s important to do so in a way that mitigates the risk of going off on the wrong path.

Some categories are experiencing strong growth (e.g. cooking, home fitness, shopping/delivery services, DIY and active lifestyle), while others are dealing with significant business issues (e.g. hospitality, travel and tourism, sports and events, shopping malls). Regardless of performance, many businesses are having to manage through supply chain, inventory, and cash flow issues.

The key to survival for companies that are struggling today will be to make a quick pivot to some form of Business Transformation (aka Change Management on steroids). What worked before will not necessarily work now and going forward. However, as necessary as these types of changes may be, they’re often a very tough move to pull off. Personalities, territory battles and the usual resistance to change will likely can coalesce in a push to maintain the status quo. Not to mention that the resources and talent that it takes to implement these kinds of changes may not currently be on board.

There are a few important principles to keep in mind as we navigate across this new and uncertain terrain:

Authenticity - be honest about what your brand stands for, be it positive or negative. What is your brand purpose? Only put forth images, statements and offers that are true to your products, services and overall brand position.

Speed - moving in a fast and agile way is key to both resolving current issues and to capitalizing on future opportunities.

Pilot, Pilot, Pilot - diversification is critical to future success. It’s important not to leave all your eggs in one basket. This is a time to send off trial balloons that will provide quick data on potential new products, channels or marketing options.

Game Theory - chess grandmaster and current World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen claims that he can “see” up to 20 moves ahead. While this may be extreme, play out the, “if I do this, they do that” for at least three moves. This is the first step towards identifying the most lucrative options and for planning appropriate contingencies.

Risk Mitigation - this is a natural fallout from Game Theory. With every challenge and opportunity there comes risk and reward. Know your risks and if still reasonable to take, have a plan in place to limit the damage if things go wrong.

As George Harrison said, “all things must pass” and eventually the current uncertainties will also fade away. However, because of the magnitude of the challenges that they created, I think they will cause long term and fundamental changes to both our financial and societal ecosystems. Now would be the perfect time to take a hard look at your current situation and to consider what form of Business Transformation would be right for you.